Odds stacked against Phillies
PHILDELPHIA -- Pedro Martinez has been there before -- in a deep hole as a member of the Red Sox against the Yankees in 2004, one loss away from postseason elimination.
"We're in way better shape than we were in '04," said Martinez about his Phillies team, which is down 3-1 in the World Series and can be eliminated with a loss in Game 5 at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. "It's just another battle, another hurdle that we have to overcome."
As most fans know, those Red Sox were the first Major League team ever to overcome a 3-0 playoff deficit. They defeated the Yankees in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series and never lost again that postseason, sweeping the Cardinals to win Boston's first World Series title in 86 years.
Though the odds of the Red Sox coming back were monumental, the odds of the Phillies winning it all in seven games are also pretty severe, although it has happened six times in the 105-year history of the World Series, which was inaugurated in 1903.
Since then, 43 teams have taken a 3-1 lead and 37 of them have gone on to win the Series with 24 of those 37 winning it all in Game 5. A comeback from 3-1 hasn't happened, though, in 24 years, since the 1985 Royals went into Game 5 against the Cardinals in old Busch Stadium down 3-1, only to win that game behind a complete-game five-hitter from left-hander Danny Jackson.
Recent history is enough to keep the Yankees tempered, even after their stirring, 7-4, Game 4 victory with three runs in the ninth inning on Sunday night.
"It feels good, but we've been down this road before and we have to stay very focused," said Yanks third baseman Alex Rodriguez, whose two-out double against Brad Lidge drove in Johnny Damon with the winning run. "Those guys are the world champs. They're going to come out fighting, and so are we. We just have to stay in the moment."
Martinez, who started and lost Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, said he's ready to pitch Game 6 at the new yard in the Bronx if it comes to that.
"They haven't told me yet if I have the start," he said. "Everybody is on the bubble until the situation comes up, but I fall on Game 6. Game 6 is my spot. I don't know if it's going to happen. I'm ready for it, though, if it does."
But first things first. The Phillies must win Game 5 behind Cliff Lee, who shut down the Yankees with a complete-game six-hitter, 6-1, in the series opener. At 3-0 with an 0.54 ERA, Lee has been the Phils' most dominant postseason pitcher. He'll face Yanks right-hander and Game 2 winner A.J. Burnett. If the task ahead seems daunting, Lee made it sound like simple math before he bolted from his locker after Sunday night's game.
"We just have to win three in a row," he said.
If he wins the first of that trio, then Phillies manager Charlie Manuel can look ahead to Game 6 and a possible Game 7. He has Martinez on regular rest for Wednesday night in Yankee Stadium, but might be in a quandary if it gets as far as Game 7 on Thursday. That's the slot usually reserved for Cole Hamels, who has had a rough postseason, losing Game 3 on Saturday night when he allowed five runs on five hits and didn't make it out of the fifth inning.
But like Martinez, Hamels -- 1-2 behind a 7.58 ERA this postseason -- is very much on the bubble with no word yet from his manager.
"I think Charlie's worried about Game 5, that's where his focus needs to be," Hamels said. "That's what we need to do now. Win these games one at a time. I'll worry about Game 7 when it happens."
A year ago, the Phillies found themselves in the absolute mirror situation -- leading the Rays 3-1 in the World Series with a much more capable Hamels on the mound here in Game 5. Hamels started and pitched well in a game that was suspended because of heavy rain and played over the course of three days. When it was over, the Phillies became the 37th team to capitalize on a 3-1 advantage to win the World Series and the 24th to do so in five games.
During the last two postseasons they've never found themselves in this kind of pit. In fact, they were 11-1 during their last 12 playoff games at home until the Yanks came in and put two in the Bank this weekend.
"Maybe it's a good thing to be playing with our backs against the wall," said Hamels, who was 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA last postseason and was named MVP of both the National League Championship Series and World Series for his efforts. "We're going to find out what we're really made of. The Yankees are a very good team, but so are we. And we could very well be in their position right now with a few breaks."
The Phillies will definitely find out what they're made of, perhaps as early as Monday night. In the NLCS both this year and last year against the Dodgers, they went into Game 5 with a 3-1 lead and wrapped up the series. Ditto in the 2008 World Series. But this is new and fertile ground. They've never been here in this time and space.
Manuel said he would sleep on it, but then might call a short team meeting before the game to bolster the enthusiasm, if need be.
"We take a lot of pride in being resilient and the way we bounce back," he said. "I know that we're going to come out and try to win. I know that. I've seen us go through it before. We've blown a lot of games from the seventh inning on and bounced back. That's got to tell you something about the resilience of our team. Tonight was tough, but we're in the World Series now. We're down, but at the same time, you know what? We're still breathing."
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
MLB 2009 World Series: Yankees vs Phillies Game 1 Betting Odds
MLB 2009 World Series: Yankees vs Phillies Game 1 Betting Odds: Whether you plan to bet on the Yankees, bet on the Phillies or make any number of the MLB predictions you can make on the 2009 World Series odds matchup between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies, you need to know where the best online sportsbooks are. Well no need to search for the 2009 World Series odds any longer, simply use our online sports handicapping site to compare sports odds on not only the 2009 World Series but any sporting event including NBA odds, NFL odds and college football odds.
Let's get right to the real reason you found your way here to begin with, your looking for 2009 World Series odds. The 2009 World Series could very well be a pitchers duel or it could amount to an enormous amount of ball knocked out of the park. With the 2009 World Series set to start at 7:57PM in the Bronx it's time to get your online sports handicapping accounts setup and make your 2009 World Series predictions.
Cliff Lee of the Philadelphia Phillies and CC Sabathia are set to do battle on the mound as the we kick off Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. Ironically both of these World Series pitchers came from the Cleveland Indians and ironically were traded to the two teams that made it to baseballs biggest game.
For the New York Yankees, CC Sabathia has a 3-0 record with a 1.19 ERA as he completed his first postseason for the Yankees. On the Philadelphia Phillies side you have Cliff Lee who is 2-0 in the postseason with a 0.74 ERA.
Keeping Alex Rodriguez in check will surely be a challenge for the Phillies pitcher Cliff Smith, while Sabathia battles with the Phillies lineup.
(c) 2009 Online Sports Handicapping.
MLB playoff picks: Yankees vs Angels game 3
New York is up 2-0 and we have the picks ready to let you know whether or not Anaheim will come back in the Yankees vs Angels MLB series.
Game 3 picks in the Yankees vs Angels series and they currently have the home-team Angels as -133 favorites. The Yankees are a big public betting team but it appears that early picks have been made on Anaheim after they opened up as just -110 favorites on the odds. The total for game 3 of the Yankees vs Angels series is set at 8.5 runs.
The Yankees will be throwing lefty Andy Pettite (15-8, 4.07 ERA) out there against the Angels and Anaheim hits .283 against left-handed pitching on the season. Pettite has had 3 starts against Anaheim this season and Anaheim has been the picks in two with Andy giving up 14 runs over the 16 innings he's pitched during those starts.
Opposing Pettite in the Yankees vs Angels series will be Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.55 ERA) for Anaheim. Weaver has been particularly hot in his last 3 starts with a 1.47 ERA over that time but the Angels were only betting picks in 1 of 3 Weaver starts against the Yankees this season. Weaver allowed 10 runs over 19.1 innings during those starts.
Both teams in the Yankees vs Angels series are struggling to hit lately but we still have to recommend making our betting picks on the over 8.5 runs and Anaheim as small favorites on the odds. They need this game more and they usually put up lots of runs against Pettite and that is enough to make those our two MLB playoff betting picks for game 3.
(c) TheOnlinewire.com, 2004-2008.
MLB One-Game Playoff Preview: Tigers at Twins
It took forever, but the last month of the baseball season has finally provided some drama. The dullest pennant drive in memory has wrapped up with a tie in the AL Central between the Twins and the Tigers. That means that we get to watch the cruelest event in sports on Tuesday afternoon - the one game baseball playoff. Baseball is all about long series that eventually prove the best team, so these one game series are very difficult to assess and handicap.
These games are typically played the evening after the season ends, but an embarrassment of riches when it comes to sports drama in Minneapolis - Brett Favre plays the Packers in Minnesota for the first time Monday night - means it had to be delayed by a day. The scheduling adds another layer of drama - the Yankees have the right to decide whether to start their series against the winner of this game on Wednesday or Thursday, and they don't have to decide until after the tiebreaker ends. That almost certainly means a quick turnaround for the winner.
Here's a look at several factors that will impact the outcome:
History - Since divisional play began in 1969 this is the eighth play-in game. Teams must be growing more fond of them recently, though - this is the third straight year that there has been one. It's also the second year in a row that the Twins have played in one. They lost to the White Sox, 1-0, last year. Outstanding pitching performances have been common in these games - four different times the losing team has scored one or fewer runs. A strong showing can't be assumed, though - the Rockies won, 9-8, in 2007. There is one good historical reason to like the Twins here - four of the five one-game playoffs since the wild card era began have been won by the home team.
Momentum - If momentum matters then the Twins have a very clear edge. They won 16 of their final 20 games to secure the tie, and had to win their final four to close from three games back. Needless to say, that means that the Tigers did not finish strong. They had a comfortable lead of 5.5 games with 20 games remaining, but faltered down the stretch to put themselves in this situation.
Momentum can be an important factor in these games. In 1978 the Yankees were 13 games behind the Red Sox on July 16, but ended up beating Boston in the play-in game. The 2007 Rockies closed with an incredible 15-1 record in their final 16 games, and rode that momentum all the way through the play-in and into the World Series. The Mariners were 11 games behind the Angels on Aug. 9, 1995. They crushed the Angels, 9-1, in the play-in game. If you are a believer in historical trends then you'll have to like the Twins here.
Season series - No matter how you spin it the Twins have an edge here. The Twins won 11 of the 18 games played between the two teams, including four of the seven played since the middle of September. Things are even more bleak when the games were played in the Metrodome - Minnesota won seven of those nine games. The Twins are also 6-2 in games in which they were favored at odds of -115 or higher. The Twins opened at -170 in this one.
Offense - The Twins have a big edge here. Joe Mauer would be my pick for AL MVP, and has continued to be brilliant down the stretch. Michael Cuddyer has been incredible in the last month, putting up huge numbers including 22 RBI. Delmon Young closed out the season strong as well. On the other side, the Tigers have been weak at the plate down the stretch. Miguel Cabrera has spent more time fighting with his wife than he did hitting well down the stretch. Magglio Ordonez could put out an APB for his power. Brandon Inge had a second half as lousy as his first half was outstanding. Just based on the current states of the lineups you would have little problem justifying the current odds.
Pitching - I give the Twins an edge here, too, though it isn't as big an edge as they have in other areas. Minnesota is starting Scott Baker. At 15-9 with a 4.36 ERA, Baker isn't a dominant arm. He's 13-3 since June, though, so he is in solid form. He's also very solid at home - the team has won six of his last seven home starts. He's a veteran, and that means he should be calm and focused for this start. The same can't be assumed about Detroit's Rick Porcello. He's coming off a very good year, but he's only 20 and he's a rookie, so he has definitely never played in a game as important as this one, and he has likely never played in an environment as hostile as the Metrodome will be on Tuesday. Porcello's record is comparable to Baker's, and his career upside is bigger, but he's likely at least slightly outmatched at this time.
(c) Doc's Sports Service.
Play it Again Pedro - Phils to Lay Smackdown on Fading Astros
The Philadelphia Phillies (91-66 SU, 81-75 RL, 69-81-6 O/U) will be looking to take another step towards winning their third consecutive NL East title when they host the Houston Astros (73-84 SU, 78-78 RL, 67-83-6 O/U) at Citizens Bank Park tonight at 7 PM ET.
Pedro Feliz smacked a grand slam home run to lead the Phillies to a convincing 7-4 win over the Astros on Tuesday night, helping Philadelphia cash in for BetUS MLB betting members as -275 home favorites while the game's final score played Over the 9.5-run O/U total.
Jayson Werth went 2-for-3 with a two-run jack for the Phillies while Kaz Matsui went 2-for-5 with a two-run homer for Houston in a losing effort.
Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to right-hander Brian Moehler (8-11, 5.21 ERA) while the Phillies counter with veteran right-hander Pedro Martinez (5- 1, a 3.32 ERA).
Here is a look at tonight's key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.
Astros are 8- 3 in their last 11 vs. National League East.
Astros are 17- 36 in their last 53 games as a road underdog.
Astros are 2- 8 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 1- 5 in Moehler's last 6 road starts.
Phillies are 5- 1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Phillies are 20- 6 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Phillies are 4- 0 in Martinez's last 4 home starts.
Phillies are 7- 1 in Martinez's last 8 starts.
Astros are 5- 1 in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 6- 2 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.
Astros are 2- 5 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
MLB Odds
Houston Astros +1 1/2 -115
Brian Moehler -R +175
Philadelphia Phillies -1 1/2 -105
Pedro Martinez -R -210
Over 9 1/2 -120
Under 9 1/2 Ev
Brian Moehler has gone 0-1 over his last three starts with a 6.28 ERA while Pedro Martinez has gone 2-1 over his last three starts with a 3.06 ERA.
Analysis: After leading BetUS MLB sports betting members to an easy payday in Tuesday night's contest, I'm back with what should amount to another winning wager on tonight's matchup.
While the Astros have gone a solid 8- 3 in their last 11 games against NL East ballclubs, Houston has also gone a dismal 17- 36 in their last 53 games as a road underdog and just 2- 8 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter, not to mention a pitiful 1- 5 in Brian Moehler's last six road starts.
The Phillies are the easy pick again tonight as they've gone a nearly perfect 5- 1 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter and robust 20- 6 in their last 26 home games against a team with a losing record.
The Phillies have also been money in the bank when Pedro Martinez takes the mound; going 4- 0 in Martinez's last four home starts and 7- 1 in Martinez's last eight starts overall.
With the Astros going an uninspiring 2- 5 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia, I say take the Phillies to lay a big smackdown on the Astros tonight.
MLB Free Picks: Phillies -1 1/2 Runs
(c) 1994-2009 BetUS.com. All Rights Reserved.
MLB Sports Betting Preview: New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Almost a year after these squads met in the final three games ever played at Shea Stadium, the Florida Marlins (82-71, +$787) and the New York Mets (65-88, -$1,793) will renew acquaintances for the final time in 2009. Friday will be the first of a three-game MLB betting series. Last season, it was the Marlins that marched into the Big Apple and ended the playoff dreams of the Mets. Now, it's New York's turn to try to put a huge damper on Florida's baseball gambling playoff chances. The Fish enter this game with slim hopes to run down the Phillies for the lead in the NL East and Colorado for the NL Wild Card.
RHP Tim Redding will get the nod from manager Jerry Manuel on Friday night. The right-hander has struggled for the majority of the season, but recently, he has been effective. In his most recent sports wagering outing, Redding allowed just four hits, two walks, and one earned run over seven innings of work to beat the Nationals 3-2. It was just his third win against six losses on the season, and the solid start lowered his ERA to 5.25. Redding has toed the rubber for New York betting fanatics against the Fish three times this season, but none of the starts have been particularly pretty. He is 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA.
Florida betting fanatics will hope to take one step closer towards the postseason when RHP Ricky Nolasco takes the hill. Since June 7th, Nolasco has generally been either incredibly good or exceptionally awful. Out of his 20 starts since the start of June, the righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer 12 times. He's given up at least seven earned runs three times, though. Still, since opening up the 2009 MLB gambling season at 2-6 with an 8.17 ERA, Nolasco has settled down dramatically. Since that point, Marlins wagering aficionados are 13-6 in his 19 starts, and the righty has lowered his ERA by almost three full runs to 5.34. After failing to strike out more than six batters in any of his first ten starts, Nolasco has fanned at least seven in 12 of his L/19, raising his K/9 for the season up to an impressive 9.09.
The oddsmakers love the Fish in tonight's MLB wagering contest. They are -185 favorites to pick up the victory over the Mets, while the baseball betting over/under comes in at 9 over +100.
(c) 2008 Eye on Gambling. LLC , All Rights Reserved.
Afternoon Baseball between AL Leaders - Yankees vs. Angels
Halos to Put Yankees AL East Title Hopes on Hold for a Day
The New York Yankees (96-56 SU, 82-70 RL, 74-71-7 O/U) and the Los Angeles Angels (90-61 SU, 83-67 RL, 79-65-6 O/U), AL East and West division leaders, battle at Angel Stadium in the rubber-match of the teams' three-game set today at 3:30 PM ET.
The Yankees narrowly beat the Angels 6-5 on Tuesday on Alex Rodriguez's sacrifice fly in the top of the ninth inning.
New York cashed in for BetUS MLB betting fanatics as a +110 road underdog while the game's final score played Over the 10-run O/U total.
Rodriguez smacked a two-run homer to lead New York to victory while Chone Figgins went 3-for-5 with a home run for Los Angeles in a losing effort.
Tonight, the Yankees will give the ball to right-hander A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.22 ERA) while the Angels counter with left-hander Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08 ERA).
Here is a look at tonight's key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.
Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Yankees are 2-5 in Burnett's last 7 starts.
Yankees are 1-5 in Burnett's last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Angels are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Yankees are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
Yankees are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Los Angeles.
MLB Odds
New York Yankees +1 1/2 -175
A.J. Burnett -R +110
Los Angeles Angels -1 1/2 +155
Scott Kazmir -L -130
Over 9 1/2 +105
Under 9 1/2 -125
The Scoop: The New York Yankees are ranked 2nd in hitting, with a batting average of .284 while averaging 5.7 runs per game this season. The Yankees are ranked 17th in pitching, with an earned run average of 4.37.
The Los Angeles Angels are ranked 1st in hitting, with a batting average of .285 while averaging 5.5 runs per game this season. The Angels are ranked 22nd in pitching, with an earned run average of 4.48.
A.J. Burnett has gone 1-1 over his last three starts with a 3.60 ERA while Scott Kazmir has gone 1-0 over his last three starts with a 1.42 ERA.
Analysis: I know the Yankees clinched a spot in the postseason on Tuesday night, but I like the Los Angeles Angels to put their bid to win the AL East on hold for at least another day as they take tonight's rubber-match.
While the Yankees have gone a solid 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 7-2 in their last nine road games against a left-handed starter, the Yankees have also gone 2-5 in A.J. Burnett's last seven starts and 1-5 in the right-hander's last six starts as a road underdog.
The Angels are the correct pick tonight as they have gone 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record while bouncing back from a loss very well lately, going 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.
L.A. also has a red-hot hurler taking the hill tonight in Scott Kazmir as the talented southpaw has not allowed more than two earned runs in five consecutive starts, while tossing six shutout innings in his last start and limiting his opponents to just one earned run in three of his last five outings.
Cementing my pick of the Halos for the straight up win tonight is the fact that New York has gone just 2-5 in the last seven meetings against L.A. and a pitiful 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Los Angeles.
MLB Free Picks: Los Angeles Angels SU Win
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