Amateur baseball is beating the odds
I just finished reading your article (found here) about the future of baseball in Canada, and was dismayed that no attention was paid to the amateur circuit.
While teams and leagues have consistently floundered in Canada ... other teams are flourishing. Since the departure of the Calgary Cannons, Calgary has seen two professional teams, both which are still struggling to find steady crowds. However, right smack in the middle of them were the Calgary Dawgs, who not only won a championship, but did so in front of over 4,000 fans.
The only reason they are not still in Calgary is due to the inability to strike a stadium deal because of the semi-professional Vipers locking up the stadium for exclusive use.
This caused the Dawgs to build a multimillion-dollar stadium in Okotoks where they won yet another championship last season, and have over 1,300 season tickets for this season. To accomplish this feat of actually filling the stands with paying fans each and every game, they haven't even had to rely on gimmicky tricks such as selling a player for bats, or trading a pitcher in exchange for plastic seats, signing former NHL players 10 years past their prime, or anything of the like.
They have done it simply by having a community presence and putting on a valuable experience for the customers through a contest every inning, great food and a fun atmosphere. And it's no downgrade in quality of baseball either. If you recognize the names Colin Moro and Travis Drader from the Calgary Vipers, you might also know that only last year they were on the Okotoks Dawgs, and are now among the league leaders offensively. Other players such as Rob Recuenco played for the Dawgs only a season or two ago and are still finding success in the Golden League. If players from an amateur league can move up in one season to excel in the professional ranks, it really shows the quality of play that a bunch of university players can exhibit.
Furthermore, you could contact the Dawgs directly to find out about the number of players that moved from their team directly into the Major League Baseball farm system. Players such as Jimmy Henderson (2004 Dawgs, currently with the AAA Iowa Cubs, and Emerson Frostad (2004 Dawgs, currently with the AA Frisco, Tex. RoughRiders) and numerous others are quickly scaling the ranks to MLB. And it's not only the Dawgs that are doing this. The Lethbridge Bulls have been a staple in the league for many years and have a fanbase willing to drive around the west side of the country to follow their team.
The league has expanded into Medicine Hat, Regina, Sherwood Park and all within the last five years. You might also remember more than one of those cities had a team in the defunct failure known as the Canadian Baseball League, as well as other independent league teams that were even mentioned in your article. This league has a steady following throughout all its cities, has dedicated fans who will follow the teams, have radio contracts and internet radio calls of the games, and is an ongoing success. Furthermore, if you talk to the owners and operators of the team, they are all upbeat, excited for the future, and excited to expand.
That's not nearly the same impression I got from your article about owners talking about the struggles of running a non-affiliated baseball team. Sorry to go on, but I just wanted to let you know the good news that baseball entertainment is not doomed in Canada. Look to the Dawgs, who are hosting the International Super Series in Okotoks. Look to the Lethbridge Bulls who have tight connections with Baseball Canada as well as being tightly linked with one of the premier collegiate baseball facilities in Canada, or look to the Swift Current Indians who consistently reach the league final and have something of a Yankees-esque lock on the Saskatchewan division.
I acknowledge the difficulties of a Canadian market for baseball, and yet the Okotoks Dawgs consistently sell out their games. I know this can be an expensive venture, and yet Yorkton and Melville and other smaller cities have teams and compete every year.
While teams like the Vipers are scaling back operations, teams like the Dawgs are expanding into a junior team and building and expanding their stadium. I don't know how they do it, but they make it work. Baseball in Canada doesn't always have to fail and the Western Major Baseball League is a perfect example of that.
copyright 2004 Business Edge
Mets Playoff Odds Better Than Yanks
The trading deadline has passed, and although both New York ball clubs had major holes that needed filling, only the Yankees were active, while the Mets were not. No sooner had the deadline passed than both teams found themselves suddenly handicapped with hope-crushing injuries. The Yankees have lost Joba Chamberlain for an unknown length of time, potentially crippling an already-wounded rotation. Meanwhile the Mets got "precautious" with closer Billy Wagner, placing him on the disabled list shortly after having to disable rotation stalwart John Maine.
In light of the Mets' multiple losses from their pitching staff and their inactivity at the deadline, when you look at the odds of which of the two teams stands a better chance of winding up on the playoff slate, you might not expect it to be them. Instead, it's the Yankees whose bid is looking increasingly precarious, according to the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report. This might seem strange, because the Mets seem to be having problems getting clear of the Marlins in sorting out who should be in third place in the NL East. However, Clay Davenport's research in the Playoff baseball Odds Report relays that they still have a shot, nearing 40 percent, of winding up on October's postseason slate. Most of that comes from their chances at overtaking a Phillies team still reliant on a relatively mediocre rotation; going into Thursday's action, the Mets stood a 33.7 percent chance of winning the division title, and a little more than a 5 percent chance of coming out on top in the wild card scrum.
The math might seem strange, the Mets still need to sort out what to do in Maine's absence, and might have some understandable concerns over whether or not Aaron Heilman will be able to hold especially narrow leads, and that's before we get into their fixing a lineup that's down two starting outfielders and its second baseman. But consider the remainder of the schedule: The Mets have nine more games to play against the sad-sack Nationals, nine against a Braves team that's going to pieces, and five against another cellar-scraping squad, the Pirates. That's almost half of their remaining schedule.
Admittedly, there might be some built-in optimism within the system, which runs a million seasons nightly to update each teams' odds after the previous night's outcomes, in that it can't make a lot of allowances for the fact that the Marlins rotation, which ranks among the game's worst, has been shored up by the returns of Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez and the addition of rookie Chris Volstad. Even if that group turns in mediocre performances, that might be good enough to win with the aid of the Marlins' potent offense.
If that sounds familiar, it should, because that's been the Phillies' winning strategy, this year as well as last. While staff ace Cole Hamels would shine anywhere, bend-but-don't-break rotation regulars such as Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and the traded-for Joe Blanton typifies the unit's more workmanlike virtue. However, with the Mets' lineup in tatters, it's perhaps just as well that they've only got five games left against Philadelphia, because it isn't like that they have the rotation or the lineup to go toe to toe with the Phillies. With so few direct shots at the Phillies, however, the Mets can perhaps better focus on what it will take to win the games they have to play: The margin isn't directly between the two teams, but is instead a matter of what the Mets can do to win as many of their remaining 48 games as possible.
Their fortunes will already change somewhat when they get second baseman Luis Castillo back from his rehab assignment and with Maine apparently so well on the mend that he'll be back next week. But in light of the news that they probably won't get Ryan Church back, they'd be well-served to add a veteran outfielder who can help their lineup really pound that weak-stretch slate of opponents. Although that schedule might encourage them to let it ride, too much of their fortune depends on Danny Murphy's readiness and Fernando Tatis's improbable comeback. Opposing pitching will make adjustments, and right now the Mets can no more afford struggling from either pitcher than they can Endy Chavez's limits as a hitter.
As for the Yankees, their situation has gotten this dire in part because they're in a division that no longer has a patsy, because they have 27 intradivisional games, and because they're already only 23-22 against their divisional rivals. While it's easy to anticipate that a team such as the Orioles or Blue Jays might pack it in as injured or hurting players get shut down for the season, there's also no way to count on it. Making matters worse, the Yanks also have four series (and 13 games) remaining against out-of-division teams with their own playoff hopes, the Angels, White Sox, and Twins. Place that many tough matchups on the schedule, and it's no wonder that the odds of seeing an October send-off for the House That Ruth Built are as low as they are.
It would be easy to overstate the statistical significance of losing Chamberlain. There's obviously a qualitative difference between Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, but if Chamberlain's back as soon as possible, in terms of a direct impact that's only two or three starts. The problem is instead that this could be significant beyond those individual games themselves. First, there's the risk in terms of added stress on a bullpen that's already going to have to help fill in the innings between the point when a Sidney Ponson or Dan Giese gets hooked and the point when they can (theoretically) turn the lead over to Mariano Rivera. There's also the problem of employing more defense-dependent starters such as Kennedy or Giese; Chamberlain's not so handicapped by one of the league's worst defensive units because so few balls are in play, but the alternatives to him won't be quite so free from the baleful impact of a creaky D.
2008 The New York Sun, One, SL, LLC.
MLB Odds: Atlanta Braves vs SFO Giants Odds
If you have lost money earlier in the day, you can try to earn some back by making the right bet on the odds of Monday's late baseball game. Although both teams are out of the playoff race, there is still a nice bet to make here as the Atlanta Braves (51-60) travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants (46-64). This game will feature two excellent pitchers as Jair Jurrjens (10-6, 3.06 ERA) and Matt Cain (6-9, 3.70 ERA) take to the mound.
Online sportsbook Bookmaker.com has the Giants listed as -125 favorites while the Braves' odds are sitting at +105. The game's total is currently sitting at 7. Jurrjens has never faced the Giants but has been pitching solid innings all year long while being one of the most reliable starters in the league. He has a 3.38 ERA over the course of his last three starts. Cain has been even hotter lately; going 1-2 despite a 1.64 ERA over his last three and really deserves a better record than what he ended up with. The pitcher has only been average against the Braves the last two seasons but those teams were a better hitting squad than what the Texiera-less Braves currently bring to the table.
The Braves only hit .249 on the road and the Giants are not much better, hitting only 56 at home this year. The Giants have been having issues scoring any runs at all while Atlanta relies too much on the long ball to score much against Cain, a guy who has not given up a home run in his last ten starts. Neither bullpen is overly good, although San Francisco has better statistics with a 3.64 ERA compared to 4.22 for the Braves. With this game being in a pitchers' park with below-average hitting, I don't think you'll see a big inning of late runs here.
Both pitchers should have excellent starts and neither squad is going to score many runs. The under is the right play. Bet San Francisco/Atlanta Under 7 -125 at Bookmaker.com, where the line originates since 1985.
2004-2006 Web Game Consultants N.V.
MLB Baseball Betting Odds -Philadelphia at Florida
The Florida Marlins (50-45) return from the All-Star break and resume their chase in the National League East, and on Friday night they host the Philadelphia Phillies (52-44) in an NL game that is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium (natural turf) right outside Miami. Southpaw Jamie Moyer (8-6, 3.95 ERA) will be the starter for the Phillies, while Ricky Nolasco (10-4, 3.89 ERA) gets the assignment for Florida.
At BetUS online sportsbook, Florida is listed as a -120 favorite (Philadelphia is even money), with a total of nine runs (it is -110 each way). The National League East has turned into quite a barn burner. The Mets have now won ten games in a row, and they would be atop the division right now if it weren't for the fact that Philadelphia and Florida have both played well. The Phillies are winners of four of their last five games, while the Marlins have captured six of their last eight games. At present, Philadelphia still holds the lead, but it is only a half-game over the Mets, with Florida just 2.5 games back. This is a three-way race, and it is going to be up to the low-budget Marlins to make sure it stays like that all the way to the end.
Ryan Howard is hitting homers with more frequency, and even though he was not selected for the All-Star game, he went into the break leading the NL in both homers and RBI's. With Chase Utley and Pat Burrell having big years, and Jimmy Rollins starting to come on, the Phils are well-positioned to keep things going offensively. And they better start doing that for their aging starter on Friday. Jamie Moyer, the 45-year-old, has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies, who have not gotten consistent enough starting pitching from enough people. He has now gone seven starts without allowing more than three runs in any game, although Philadelphia has lost four of his last five outings because they haven't been able to put a lot of runs on the board (just 14 in his last six starts). Six of Moyer's last seven starts have gone under the total.
Moyer pitched a brilliant game against Florida on June 12, limiting the Marlins to just two hits over eight innings in a 3-0 victory, He had also faced the Marlins eleven days before, and yielded five runs in seven innings in a game Philadelphia also won (7-5). He has won his last five decisions against Florida.
With all the talk about the expected development of pitchers like Scott Olsen and Andrew Miller in the Florida rotation, the guy who is rapidly proving himself to be the ace is Ricky Nolasco, who has rebounded from a very shaky start to become one of the National League's better young right-handers. Nolasco has come on strong lately; in his last seven starts, each of which Florida has won, he has allowed as many as three runs only once. And his strikeout-to-walk ratio during that period has been a stunning 48-5.
Nolasco has turned in two solid efforts against Philadelphia, holding the Phils to a pair of runs on four hits in 6-2/3 innings on May 31, then coming back ten days later (June 10) to allow no earned runs (three were unearned) over six innings. He scored wins in both games. Having seen Nolasco a couple of times, the Phillies might have more success against him. There is no question that increased run support for Moyer is inevitable. And with Howard finding his stroke lately, and the others showing no signs of slumping, we'll take the dog here. That's the Phillies, at even money in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
Copyright 1994-2008 BetUS.com.
MLB Baseball Wagering, Subway Series Odds -Yankees vs. Mets
Game 2 of a double-header between the New York Mets and the New York Yankees on Friday night signals, once again, the return of Pedro Martinez. This guy is always returning. I don't believe that Pedro will ever regain the stuff he had when he was dominating batters, but he might not have to in order to help the struggling Mets. The Mets just want somebody who can keep them in the game until the seventh inning. Pedro might be able to do that. From a baseball betting point-of-view, however, it's difficult to consider putting money on Pedro. His ERA this season, in 24.2 innings pitched, is 6.42. His record in the five games he has started is 2 and 1. The Yankees counter with Sidney Ponson. Ponson was actually pitching very well for the Texas Rangers earlier this season then, inexplicably, the Rangers decided to waive him. I have no idea why Texas did that since Ponson has a 4 and 1 record on the season with an ERA of 3.88. He's a serviceable pitcher, no doubt, and MLB betting fans could do worse then to throw some money behind him.
The first game of the Subway Series should be an easy one to call, right? Pedro Martinez might be a future hall-of-famer. Sidney Ponson is a journeyman pitcher. Pedro by a landslide, right? Right? Wrong! The truth about this game is that Pedro isn't really Pedro anymore. I doubt he pitches more then four, maybe five innings. At that point the Yankees sit back and dominate the Mets' middle-relief.
Ponson will do a good job keeping the Yankees in this game. I expect the Yankees to make a nice run in the later innings of this game. To me, that means that the Yankees pull off the upset. I'll be making an online wager on the New York Yankees to beat the New York Mets at the BetUS online betting odds of + 120.
Copyright 1994-2008 BetUS.com
MLB Baseball Futures Betting-Checking in on the NL Central
BetUS Sportsbook has posted baseball betting odds on the eventual winners in every one of Major League Baseball's six divisional races, and in the NL Central is, for all intents and purposes, a two-team race right now. Can Lou Piniella's Chicago Cubs hold off the St. Louis Cardinals, just a year removed from the World Series title? We'll examine that in this update.
It might look like the CHICAGO CUBS (-500 in BetUS odds) have clear sailing in this division. They have the best home record in the National League, at 29-8, but they have risen to first place on the strength of that alone. The 16-19 road record they've compiled must be improved upon, but the Cubs lead the majors in team batting average, at .282, and they are second in runs scored (393) through Wednesday's games. Carlos Zambrano (8-3, 3.13 ERA) and Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2.76) are as dynamic a 1-2 tandem as can be found in the National League, and Kerry Wood is starting to settle down as the closer; the fireballer has 18 saves, a sterling 0.86 WHIP ratio and 44 strikeouts in 37 innings. The offense is incredibly balanced, and Chicago has gotten a great season out of rookie catcher Geovany Soto (12 HR, 43 RBI, .286) as well as solid play from Japanese import Kosuke Fukadome (.296). Derrick Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez are all contributing, as can be expected. It's that inability to win away from home with any consistency that has some people worried.
Unlike the Cubs, the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+400 in BetUS odds) have compiled a winning record on the road (19-15). Tony LaRussa's team is patient at the plate, drawing more walks than any other major league team, and is getting balance out of its "no name" rotation, with Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellmeyer, Braden Lopper and Adam Wainwright all at least three games over the .500 mark. Albert Pujols, who was hitting .347 as of Wednesday's games, is making another strong bid for the MVP award. And outfielder Ryan Ludwick (16 HR, 55 RBI, .311) is having his best year thus far. Rick Ankiel is still an asset with his power and arm in the outfield (judged by some to be among the best ever), even though he is hitting .250. Yes, there are some bullpen issues to straighten out, but the Cards are in prime striking distance.
The MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+700 in BetUS odds) still could make a move, and they certainly have a shot at the wild card. They've been getting a power surge lately from Ryan Braun (now with 20 homers) and they are just waiting for Prince Fielder (12 HR's, .280) to heat up a little more. Rickie Weeks, who looked like he was at it again this year (.210, but 43 runs scored on just 48 hits) went on the DL with a sprained knee, but he's expected back in the near future. Shortstop J.J. Hardy is also returning from a shoulder ailment. Ben Sheets (8-1, 2.74 ERA) is a strong Cy Young candidate, and Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse have done yeoman's work in the bullpen. They've got to hold up for the full season. As for the rest, they're a little too far back to make noise, although it should be mentioned that there is some upside to the CINCINNATI REDS (+3500 in BetUS odds), who are getting perhaps the best year of any starting pitcher out of Edinson Volquez, who leads the NL in ERA (1.64 ERA) and strikeouts (105). That's your Cy Young winner, as of now. The value here, however, goes with Cards, who are nicely positioned, just off the pace.
Copyright 1994-2008 BetUS.com
MLB Baseball Betting Odds - Baltimore at Boston
The Baltimore Orioles (31-31) will try to leap over the .500 mark on Tuesday night as they take on the Boston Red Sox (40-26), who are playing very good ball again, in an American League sports betting contest that is set to get underway at 7:05 PM ET at Fenway Park (natural turf) in Boston. Right-handers take the mound, as Daniel Cabrera (5-2, 4.07 ERA) of the Orioles goes up against Josh Beckett (6-4, 4.07 ERA) of the Red Sox.
At BetUS online sportsbook, Boston is listed as a -260 favorite (Baltimore is positive 220), with a total of nine runs (the Under is -115, while the Over is -105). Boston has gotten itself together lately, winning eight of its last ten games. And it is certainly not a bad thing that the Red Sox are at friendly Fenway, where they have won 26 of their 32 outings this season. Boston has also posted a very strong 35-18 record as a favorite, logging a 66 percent success rate there. To give you an idea of how dominant Boston has been on their home turf, they have outscored the opposition by 2.2 runs a game before the hometown fans.
The Sox have had a day off after beating Seattle on Sunday, and J.D. Drew has started to hit again; the outfielder hit a home run in the game against the Mariners and getting hit by a pitch to drive in the winning run. Daniel Cabrera hopes to get something going as he opposes them tonight. Cabrera pitched well enough where the O's won eight of his first nine starts. But Baltimore has lost his last three outings. He'll be trying to rebound from his worst effort since Opening Day, as he gave up six runs in six innings against the Twins on Wednesday. Josh Beckett's results against Baltimore have been mixed this season. On May 13 he surrendered five runs and 11 hits in just 5-2/3 innings against the O's, but was able to much better in the rematch, as he struck out ten Orioles in six innings and gave up only two runs and four hits in a 5-2 Boston win. Beckett was strong last time out, as he yielded just a single run in six frames against the Rays last Wednesday.
It's difficult to buck a team that has won 15 of its last 16 home games. But we don't want to plunge in at this price. We would explore moving with an "under," but we would lay a price there too. And as long as we're going to do that, we might as well take a special adjusted line at BetUS, which allows us to lay -125 and a run and a half with Boston, not bad considering Sunday's game was the only win out of Boston's last even that was a one-run game.
Copyright 1994-2008 BetUS.com
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